Friday, September 25, 2009

Accounted and unaccounted wealth in India

According to estimates by investment arm of banks and other financial institutions number of US dollar millionaires in India is about 150,000. These are the people who have acquired wealth by legal means and is invested in stock markets etc hence legal and accounted for.

It is widely believed that black market economy in India is estimated to be as high as 60 % of the GDP. This type of wealth is acquired by land transactions, bribes, commissions, trading,professionals paid in cash, etc. Thus in my view one can easily assume that there are at least 250,000 USD millionaires in India. Thus there is a tremendous opportunity for selling luxury goods, plush apartments,foreign travel etc for which this type of wealth has to find avenue. Read the article below.



In India, the number of dollar millionaires rose 22.7% to 123,000 in 2007
Nishant Kumar / Reuters

Mumbai: Indian wealth managers are set to start hiring and revive expansion plans as a rebound in domestic shares mints millionaires, creating fertile hunting ground for new clients.

The revival comes after a tough 2008 when the ranks of the rich in India — defined as those with $1 million (Rs4.84 crore) or more in investable assets — fell by nearly one-third to 84,000, the steepest drop in the world after Hong Kong, as a 52% fall in local shares wiped out billions of dollars in wealth.

Though demand for riskier, higher-fee assets such as real estate and private equity remains below 2007 levels, industry insiders said, players such as Deutsche Bank AG and Standard Chartered Bank say new client assets under advisement have surged by more than 25% in 2009.

“The opportunity that is presenting itself in India today is unparalleled compared to any other parts of Asia,” said Soumya Rajan, head of Indian wealth management at Standard Chartered. Her firm aims to add at least $500 million in client assets at its Indian wealth arm by the end of 2010, taking the total under management to more than $2 billion.

New entrants Morgan Stanley and Britain’s Barclays Plc are also looking to hire to capture a piece of the high potential Indian wealth management industry.

Morgan Stanley attracted nearly 300 clients between the launch of its India wealth management business in September 2008 and last month, a number it aims to grow to 1,000 over the next three-four years. It intends to add another 50 wealth management staff over the next three years, a gain of 50%.

“Where is the growth? U.S., Europe, Japan—demographics are against growth... For India, we are just on the growth curve,” said Ajay Bagga, head of Deutsche’s Indian wealth arm.

The number of dollar millionaires in India rose 22.7% to 123,000 in 2007, the fastest in the world, attracting new wealth management entrants such as Morgan Stanley, Societe Generale SA, Credit Suisse Group AG and Barclays.

Late in 2007, before the global financial crisis, consultant Celent had forecast that the organized wealth management industry including private banks, then growing at 32% annually, would quadruple to manage about $1 trillion in five years.

Since India restricts overseas investments to $200,000 a year, foreign players have less of an advantage from their global networks than they enjoy elsewhere.

Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd and HDFC Bank Ltd are among local players competing with foreign names such as Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Deutsche, HSBC and Standard Chartered to attract wealthy Indians.

However, wealth managers in India say the focus is less on grabbing market share than growing the overall industry.

“A large amount of opportunity lies not with the competition but expanding the market,” Satya Bansal, head of Barclays Indian wealth unit, said recently.

Small car exports from India

I think Indian car manufacturing market has reached inflection point.
Number of units exported has exceeded that of China which is 3 times India's size.
Also, I would like to add all other exporters like China, S.Korea, Thailand had a sharp decline in units exported.Also, it is expected that car sales including exports should touch 3 million from current 1.5 million in next two years. I think quality and value proposition are the main drivers.
Read the article below:


India’s auto market continues to grow fast even during a global auto downturn giving it an added attraction
Janaki Krishnan / Reuters

Mumbai: Global car makers are lining up to make India, home of Tata Motors Ltd’s Nano, the world’s cheapest car, a base for their export operations as they try to cut costs and move to compact, fuel-efficient vehicles.

South Korea’s Hyundai Motor Co., which already exports close to half of its Indian output, wants to make India its global hub for making and exporting small cars.

Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s largest auto maker, is designing a compact car for the Indian market and plans to make the country its small-car hub by 2012. And Ford Motor Co. is investing about $500 million (Rs2,445 crore) to double capacity at its India plant, which will not only produce a compact car but become a strategic global production hub.

Japan’s Suzuki Motor Corp. has a strong foothold as the majority owner of leading Indian car maker Maruti Suzuki India Ltd, which is spending at least $300 million on building a small-car research and development centre in the country. The firm exported 54,707 cars in the five months from April, the start of the 2010 fiscal year, more than double its shipments for the same period a year earlier.

“Apart from the obvious cost advantages, India has a good base of component suppliers who come with the experience of having supplied to global car companies,” said Deepesh Rathore, auto analyst with IHS Global Insight.

India’s domestic auto market is relatively small considering a population of at least 1.1 billion, with around 1.5 million passenger vehicles being sold last year. It is, however, a fast growing market, even in an auto downturn. For the first four months of 2009-10, domestic car sales rose nearly 10% from a year earlier. That potential offers an extra attraction to base export operations in India.

“Remember, India, along with Brazil, Russia and China, is a fast growing market,” said P. Balendran, vice-president, marketing, General Motors India. “All big companies have created capacities here. So when they have the capacity, it has to be utilized. Until the domestic demand picks up, these cars will be exported,” he added.

General Motors Corp., plans to export 20% of the output from its plant in Maharashtra in western India by 2011, once it reaches its full capacity of 140,000 units. Hyundai is stepping up production of its popular i20 hatchback to export to more countries to meet the growing demand.

John Parker, Ford’s Executive vice-president of Asia-Pacific and Africa, said its compact car would cater to local and export markets. “We see lots of potential for exporting cars from India,” he said, adding that India, along with China, Thailand and Africa, was seen as a strategic centre, especially for small cars